Good morning New England- I don't know where "Joel" went, but I felt that I should update the blog. Anyways ( as most know) spring is here in New England, and we are right about normal with temperatures. To get you up-to-date with what happened this winter:
January: slightly below average in snow for southern New England, I'd say about average in northern New England. Temps were near normal if not slightly warmer.
February: Below normal snow for most of New England, warm temps, and a good amount of rainfall
March: Record breaking rain for southern New England, slightly above average temps, Some snow for northern New England, but still below average.
Currently:( April 5) Rainy for most of mid to southern New England, still above average rain, normal temps- lower to mid 50's, cooler temps up north.
Just a quick forecast update, more after 00z...
BOS 8-15"
PVD 8-13"
ORH 12-18"
HFD 9-15"
BDR 6-12"
PSF 10-18"
A difficult forecast and an even more difficult map to read. Basically what we are going to see is clipper type system move across the region tomorrow night, moving offshore and developing an inverted trough which will through back a back of precip into NE Thursday. It's a bit of a two part system. For the onset of precip late tomorrow afternoon/evening, we'll likely be seeing a mix or rain showers to the south of east of a FIT-ORH-BDL line. As we head towards Thursday morning we will see a change over to snow for much of the region (perhaps still mix in coastal plain). This will be in response to a inverted trough (Norlun event) which will set up somewhere in NE...and this is the key to the forecast. Right now it appears that the greatest area of threat is far NE Massachusetts into SNH and SW ME, where colder temps and higher QPF will lead to possible 6"+ amounts. Further to the west and south, the inverted trough band will tend to sag SW throughout the day Thursday, and may bring a period of moderate-heavy precip (likely in the form of snow) into E MA and perhaps stretching into RI. We could see a few inches fall during this period. Along with some accumulation possible Wednesday night (especially N&W of ORH) we could see 2-4", up to 5" depending on the extent of the snow Thursday. Finally to the SW of this area will be a possible 1-2", up to 3" in the NE CT hills.
As you will notice there are areas highlighted with a dotted line generally to the west of the accumulation areas. If we see the trough set up a bit to the south and west of where the current forecast is, the area can be shifted in such a manner. Remember this is only a first call, and much can change.
Any trend cooler or further SW on precip will have dramatic impacts on the forecast, especially for the event Thursday. But these Norlun events are hard to pinpoint and can drop heavy accumulations in isolated areas. Recall back to the event in SW ME last year, where almost a foot feel in isolated locations!
00z runs will be coming out momentarily and hopefully add some more information to the event. Stay tuned!
2007/2008 Winter Totals (thus far)
ORH 21.0"
BOS 19.6"
Home: 16.6"
BDL 15.9"
PVD 14.0"
Selected cities:
BOS 6"
PVD 8"
ORH 9"
BDL 7"
For a full discussion of this weekends events, please stop by later (after the 00z model runs).
You may be wondering why I haven't posted in a while. Well, a few reasons. First off, I stayed the weekend in Chatham during Noel to witness the hurricane force conditions. It was spectacular! Winds gusted between 75-85 mph at the peak along the coast. Spotty damage was observed throughout the Cape with thousands of power outages.
More importantly, I am working on upgrading the site, possibly to its own domain name. In the process I plan to upgrade my weather station as well and thus combine the two online. My current station is having difficulties connecting to the internet, so I plan to invest around $500 in a new system. It is my plan to create a new site with the blog and the weather station data. I'll keep you updated on the progress.
Hey folks. As you can see posted above, we've had just over 30 entries into the 2007 Winter Forecast Contest. Please post your entries in the comments section below to join! It appears that most contestants feel 2007 will be a winter just below average for most locations. As you can see from the max/min snowtotals, there is quite a bit of variance between entries!
Thursday's models have taken a rather unexpected and significant shift to the west with regard to Noel's future path. Still a lot to iron out, but over a half dozen models are bringing significant impacts to SNE Saturday. Winds gusting to hurricane force not out of the question on the Cape/Islands. Seas nearing 30 FEET possible as well.
Similar to past years, I will keep a running spreadsheet of winter forecasts for the selected New England (and NYC metro) observation station below.
Winner will recieve a pat on the back at the end of the year! Will it be a dry winter? snowy? wet? record snowfall? no snowfall? Make your predictions!
The selected cities:
BOS
ORH
PVD
BDL
BDR
NYC
EWR
Good luck!
This contest is also accepting predictions from members of the EUSWX Board and others from the weather web. Please post your predictions (and those of others you know) in the comments section.
Current spreadsheet:
